N: SNG V N SNG TR N LM SAO THOT N? NGUYN XUN NAM Ti va ung cc c ph dang d v va "tu" bi bo ny. Sau khi ly c ph cn, sau khi bi bo va džc xong, ti bt u vit bi ny cho ti v cho bn. LI SNG M: N? Trong suy ngh , nu bn l ngܩi ang b n ny n n, ng hong s ljn mt ng bi a s ngܩi M cng n y, n a ra nh bn v ti ch no c hn g. Khng ch ngܩi ngho mc n m ngܩi giu cng b mc n lun. N nh l mt s kip, mt nh mnh kh m chy trn trn ci t ca N Thn T Do ny. Ni th c sch, mch th c chng. ng b ta dy vy. Ngܩi vit xin gi ljn qu v mt vi minh chng v nhng nhn nh "d s" nh trn. Theo bo Money, ngܩi M hin n nh Cha Chm, n nhiu hn bao gi ht. Nu ch tnh n tr gp, gm n tin mua xa v c n th tn dng, s tin n ca dn M vܮt qu con s k lc: 1,000 triu -la (a record $1 trillion). Nu so vi s n trong hai nm qua, s n m ngܩi tiu dng M hin mc n cao hn 1/3. Trong nm qua, tnh trng tr ni trong vic tr n th tn dng tng ln mc 3.3%, mc cao th hai trong vng thp nin qua. Vo qu ba, nm 1995, thi im mi nht m chng ta c ܮc nhng con s thng k, tnh trng tr ni trong vic tr tin n nh theo hnh thc tr gp cng tng ln mc cao nht trong vng hai nm qua. Theo Gory Belsky nhn xt rng nu tnh theo phn trm so vi ton b thu nhp, n tr gp ca ngܩi tiu dng cao hn trܧc y, cao hn thi k tin suy thoi vo nm 1989. Ri tc gi ny kt lun: "Ngܩi M hin nay n nhiu hn lc no ht." Trong Pht gio, mt l thuyt thܩng ܮc nhc ljn v dܩng nh ai cng bit c, l Lut Nhn Qu (Cause and Effect Law). Nu ci qu l chuyn n nh Cha Chm, n ngp u, th ci nhn (nguyn nhn) u? Nguyn nhn u tin thܩng ܮc nhc ljn chnh l tnh hnh kinh t M trong thi gian qua. Ngay c trong nhng nm m nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng i suy thoi nh trܧc y, ngܩi M cng khng b n ngp u nh hin nay. Ngay gn y, vo u thp nin 1950, ngܩi M cng t ra kh hn by gi nhiu. Mt trong nhng v d l chuyn equity. Khong 40 nm trܧc, nu so vi gi tr cn nh, equity chim t l trung bnh khong 85%. T l by gi tt xung cn 60%, nh th cng c ngha l n nh tng hn nhiu so vi trܧc y. Vi mt vi v d nh th, chng ta cng thy rng ngܩi M trong th k ny ngy cng ln su vo n nn. Hai l do chnh gii thch ti sao ngܩi M ngy cng n nhiu l s sa st ca cc cng ty Hoa K v tnh trng sa thi cng nhn. Trong nm qua, lng phn v nhng li tc khc ca ngܩi M ni chung ch tng mc thp nht trong 15 nm qua. Hai kt qu xy ra t thc trng trn l sc mua (buying power) ca ngܩi tiu dng xung thp v ngܩi M ngy cng da vo n Nj duy tr mc sng ca mnh. Hu qu ny th hin r nht khi ma Ging sinh trong hai nm lin tip, s lܮng bn ca hu ht cc cng ty bn l ca M NJu sa st m bo ch M nu ln sau mi ma Ging Sinh trong hai nm qua. Mt s ngܩi tiu dng mun duy tr thi quen mua sm vo dp l quan trng nh th, hai nm qua. Mt s ngܩi tiu dng mun duy tr thi quen mua sm vo dp l quan trng nh th, th ri vo n nn. y l mt bc tranh bi quan v cuc sng ca ngܩi M hin nay. Chuyn da vo n Nj duy tr mc sng cng do mt yu t khc thc y: S cnh tranh ca cc hng, cng ty pht hnh tn dng. Hin nay, th trܩng tn dng ang cnh tranh kh mnh. Mt s cc hng tn dng v cng ty tn dng h mc li xut xung thp vi mc ch ginh ly khch hng t cc hng tn dng "cht p" vi li xut cao. Do vy, ngܩi tiu dng thy li xut thp, u c "ngn" nn tip tc n. Gp gi thnh bo. N ci ny mt t ci kia mt t v cui cng l n ngp u. C NGОI NGHO LN NGОI GIU U... N Khng ch ngܩi ngho mi mc n m c ngܩi giu cng n nn. y l mt ǥc im rt chi l M. Ngay c nh nܧc Hoa K t bn cng n chng cht, lm cho ngn sch thm thng (deficit) hng ngn t m Kim: n Nht, n i loan, n c quc, n nhn dn (IOU)... Nh ni trn, s cnh tranh cc cng ty Tn Dng gp phn "gy nn n". V Ƕng tc "c" Credit khi mua sm qu thoi mi, khng my may no lm cho ngܩi ta xt xa nh khi m v ljm tin v thy tin ra. Do , nhiu ngܩi "vay lun c tin mua thc phm v mua giy dp cho tr con" ("We even borrowed to pay for food and for the kids shoes" -Rich Tronolone) iu hin nhin l nhng "ngܩi mc n c li tc cao thܩng c nhiu may mn hn cc bn ngho trong vic o su xung ti sn, nht l khi mn n ca h ܮc h tr bi tr gi ti sn c th dng Nj th n (asset) nh nh ca, t ai... Tuy nhin, d sao i na th tin vay t th tn dng, tin vay khng bo m (unsecured loans) v nhng th cng loi vi chng NJu l "tin tc xu" i vi hu ht mi ngܩi. L do n gin l chng ln ngܩi tiu th gnh nng li sut cao v thܩng ht dn ht tt c cc khon tit kim c th c ca h nh mt ng "si-phng" ngm. Ngܩi Vit mnh thܩng c kinh nghim v "li m li con" v s n ban u sut ǩi khng tr ni! Ai cng bit r "Vay, nn n" nhng nhiu ngܩi khng cm ܮc lng trܧc s cm d ca cc mn hng mi, "mua sm lu b", "tiu pha khng tnh ton". ng Daniel Laufenberg, Trܪng ban Kinh t Hoa K trong C quan T vn Ti chnh Tc hnh (American Express Financial Advisors) Menneapolis nhn xt v thi quen tiu ph, mua sm lu b trn ton quc (our national spending spree) rng: "Nu chng ta trܮt vo suy thoi, thu nhp s khng li hoc i xung -v rt nhiu ngܩi s khng cn kh nng Nj tr n nh k" ("If we slip into recession, income will stagnate or fall -and a lot of people will no longer be able to make their payments.") S kin mt ngܩi vay tin Nj hc i hc, ra trܩng vay tip tin mua xe, tu nh, sm sa vt dng... l mt s kin thng thܩng. Do , khng ai ngc nhin khi ni sng v n, sng vi n v tr n. Nhng hu ht NJu sng trong "ngy tn", c tin chc rng nh l ca mnh, xe l ca mnh... trong lc thc t "nh cao ca rng kia, chic xe ho nhong y, chui n trang lp lnh trn c, trn ngc..." NJu ch "s l ca mnh trong mt tng lai 5,10, 20 nm sau. Nu chng may, kinh t nhp nhng th nh, xe kh m tn ti... Khi mi thm tha "ca nh l nghip bo." Nhng bit lm sao by gi. Vay th phi tr. Phi sng Nj lm lng m tr. Nhiu ngܩi cho rng, chnh cc mn n lm cho sinh hot kinh t Hoa K tr nn nng Ƕng v sng to. V n, ngܩi ta phi ra sc m lm vic, phi tip tc lm vic Nj tr cho ht n. Mun v hu sm cng khng d dng nu cn n nh cha tr ht. Tuy vy, nhng cng ng bi quan. Bnh no cng c thuc cha c. Cng c cch Nj thot n, ch u phi khng. Nn nh l "thot" ch khng phi "trn" (nh Thy Kiu nh trn m khng thot, trong cn m man sau khi t t, m Tin hin ra nhc nh: "R rng: Nhn qu d dang toan trn n on trng ܮc sao?" LM SAO THOT N? Sau y l mt s bin php Nj thot n. Mun thot n, trܧc nht l phi chn ng n li. Chn ng bng cch tnh ton li t l N/Thu nhp. Vi cng thc N/Thu nhp ny bn c th nhn thy ngay mnh ln su ljn mc no. So snh s li tc tr thu vi s tin phi tr n hng thng Nj bit thiu tha ra sao m lo iu chnh ngay. Hu ht, cc nh k hoch ti chnh NJu cho rng: cn c vo v th ca bn trong ǩi sng x hi: cc mn n phi tr hng thng (ngoi tr nh ca) khng ܮc vܮt qu 10%-15% s li tc em v. Nu bn vܮt khi gii hn ljn 20% hay nhiu hn, tc l bn ri vo "vng nguy him". Theo thng k ca Tronolones, 75% ngܩi dn M c li tc trung bnh vܮt ra khi 17% (s li tc). Ngay c khi bn thc hin ܮc t l 10%-15% trn y cng cha nn mng vi, phi sot li ln na xem bn c vi phm cc khon sau y khng: - Bn khng th tit kim ܮc 10% trn li tc xi (cha tr thu) v cc mn n phi tr. - Bn hin c hn 10 th tn dng, k c th mua xng v cc ca hng mua sm. - Bn thܩng ch tr s ti thiu (minimum) trn s n do mua bng th tn dng. - Bn mܮn ca ch ny Nj tr n ch khc. - Bn yu cu mt ngܩi bn hoc thn nhn "ng k" (co-sign) mt khon vay mܮn v "credit record" ca bn yu km. - Bn khng th no ܧc lܮng ܮc s tin mnh mc n l bao nhiu. Nu vi phm 2 (hay nhiu hn) trong su iu ny tc l bn ang phn no b lng tng n nn . By gi, xin mch bn mt s cch thc Nj thot dn n, ng Nj n chng cht. Bn nn lm nh sau y: - u tin tr cho cc mn n c li sut cao: Lm mt danh mc n theo th t li sut, chng hn: Credit Card 18%, Unsecured Loans 14%, Auto Loan 10%... - Xem xt li cc khon vay: nh "refinancing" nh Nj hܪng li sut ang xung thp. "Refinancing" c th em mt s tit kim ng k. - Cng c ti chnh: h gim n bng cch kt hp vi ba mn n li sut cao vo mt ci vi li sut thp. Chng hn, nu bn l mt ngܩi c nh, iu tt nht l dng loi th chp (Home-euqity lines) loi ny li sut ch c 8%. Vi s n t th tn dng tng cng $10,000 bn c th tit kim ܮc hn $2,000 trn tin li phi tr trn 5 nm cho HEL l 8%. Bn c th vay n dnh cho sinh vin vi li sut 10% tr t 10 ljn 30 nm Nj s tin tr hng thng nh li. Nh m cng c ܮc ngn khon. y l cch "n tr dn, cho nng hp quanh" ca ngܩi Vit. - Thng lܮng vi c quan cho vay: Khi v n, bn th thng lܮng vi cc c quan cho vay Nj xin gim h tin li. y l iu c th lm ܮc v hu ht cc ngn hng, cc t chc tn dng NJu cho rng th h li sut hay b l ph cn hn l mt mt khch hng nh bn. V n "Credit Card" bn cng c th yu cu h li sut bng cch da ǰi qua cc tn dng ang cnh tranh bng li sut thp. - Hy vay mܮn mt cch sng to, nhng phi tht thn trng: Nu bn khng cng c ܮc vic tr n bng cch th chp nh (HEL) th hy ngh ljn vic vay ch li thp Nj tr ch li cao l n. Nhng phi lun lun hiu v "NJ cao cnh gic" i vi nhng nguy him m bn ang dn mnh vo. i khi "mܮn ca Gip Nj tr cho t l mt sng kin hay, nhng iu ny ty vo vn NJ Gip l ai, l ngܩi nh th no." Nu Gip l b con thn thuc th nguy c t nht, cn tri li nu Gip l mt ngܩi l ti, thm him th rt ng s. Tm li, sng ǩi, nht l ǩi sng M, vay tr, tr vay l chuyn thܩng tnh. To thuyn th to sng. Giu th n theo li giu, ngho n theo cch ngho. Sng nhiu n th kh thoi mi cho nn cng t n th cng nh gnh. Vy mun sng thoi mi phi hiu r vn NJ ti chnh. Phi bit hai ch m t tin, truyn thng nhc nh l ch "Liu" v ch "Ty". "Liu cm gp mm" "Ty tin bin l" "Tuy gia phong kim" Nu chng may v n, th phi ngng vay Nj c th tr n c cho xong. |